Sri Lanka, a Dying Country
In a quiet demographic revolution far from the global headlines that typically focus on its economic crises, the tropical island of Sri Lanka is aging with a speed that has stunned demographers and economists alike, facing a future where its social structures and economy may buckle under the strain. The nation, celebrated for its high literacy and advanced health indicators often likened to developed countries, now finds itself on the fast track to becoming one of the oldest countries in South Asia, a distinction that carries immense fiscal and social burdens. This rapid transformation is the direct result of a steep decline in the birth rate combined with an impressive gain in longevity.
Sri Lanka achieved significant success in its demographic transition well ahead of its regional peers, a triumph of public health and education policies initiated decades ago. However, this success is now presenting a daunting challenge. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime, has dropped from over 5.0 in the 1960s to approximately 1.99 by 2021, according to data cited in academic reviews drawing from sources like the World Bank Open Data and the Department of Census and Statistics. This figure places the TFR below the replacement level of 2.1, a crucial threshold required to maintain a stable population without migration. The consequences are stark: a shrinking base of young people must support a burgeoning elderly population.
This phenomenon of a fast-aging society, often described as “growing old before becoming rich”, is highlighted by the World Bank, which notes that Sri Lanka is moving toward an unprecedented demographic transition at a relatively low level of per capita income compared to other economies that have aged similarly. Data from the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) shows the scale of the change. The proportion of the population aged 60 and over has already crossed the critical 12% mark, the highest in South Asia. More alarming is the projection: the percentage of people over 60 is expected to more than double from the 2012 enumerated population of 2.5 million to 5.2 million by 2037, meaning almost one in every four Sri Lankans will be elderly by around 2042.
The rapidity of this shift is unique. While it took decades for developed countries to reach this level of aging, Sri Lanka is moving through this transition in a compressed timeframe. The island’s once broad-based, or ‘expansive,’ population pyramid, characteristic of high birth rates, is rapidly changing into a “barrel-shaped one,” indicating a contracting base of young people and a swelling middle and upper age group, according to demographic analysis.
The socio-economic implications are profound and extend far beyond welfare services. The country is currently experiencing a demographic bonus, a period where the working-age population (15-59 years) constitutes a comparatively high share of the total population, a fleeting window of opportunity that must be capitalized on quickly before the elderly dependency ratio overwhelms it. The World Bank warns that as the number of workers retiring increases and fewer people enter the workforce, the nation faces the prospect of lower productivity, reduced tax revenues, and diminished national savings and growth.
The pressure on the country’s already strained healthcare system is immense. The Ministry of Health will need to drastically reorient its priorities toward geriatric and long-term care. Given the overall life expectancy of over 77 years (as per recent estimates), and a healthy life expectancy of about 67 years, Sri Lankans are expected to live with increased morbidity and disability for a decade, translating to a massive demand for specialized, complex, and comprehensive care that the current infrastructure is ill-equipped to handle, as noted in various health sector reports. Furthermore, this demographic shift puts significant strain on the social protection system. The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), in its analysis of building a lifecycle social protection system, has pointed out the inadequacy of the current social security framework, noting that poverty rates among the elderly are already estimated to be higher than in any other age group.
The cultural fabric of Sri Lankan society, traditionally centered on family-based elder care, is also being tested. The rising cost of living, rapid urbanization, and increased female labor force participation, along with a significant increase in out-migration for employment abroad, means the traditional support system is weakening.
To avert a demographic crisis, experts and international organizations are urging the Government of Sri Lanka to implement immediate, multi-pronged policy reforms. These must focus on maximizing the output from the current working-age population through investments in skills and labor market efficiency, while simultaneously developing a robust, multi-pillar social protection system that includes universal benefits for both children and the elderly. The Department of Census and Statistics emphasizes the immediate need for appropriate policy reforms to provide comprehensive social protection. The island nation’s journey through this demographic transformation will be a critical test of its ability to translate decades of human development gains into sustainable economic and social resilience for its aging citizens. Ignoring this creeping crisis would be to mortgage the future prosperity of the Pearl of the Indian Ocean for generations to come.