Security Situation Deteriorates in Pakistan’s Balochistan Province

Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan continues to experience escalating violence as separatist insurgency intensifies against the backdrop of complex ethnic, economic and political grievances. The province, comprising 44 percent of Pakistan’s territory yet home to only 12.3 million people, has witnessed a sharp surge in militant attacks throughout 2025, marking it as one of the most volatile regions in Pakistan.

The security situation has reached critical levels with the terrorist group Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and affiliated groups conducting increasingly sophisticated operations against Pakistani security forces, infrastructure and civilian targets. In March 2025, the BLA executed its most audacious attack by hijacking the Jaffar Express passenger train carrying over 400 people, resulting in at least 64 fatalities including 18 soldiers and 33 attackers after a 36 hour siege. This unprecedented incident demonstrated the group’s evolving tactical capabilities and willingness to target civilian transportation networks.

Statistical data reveals the deteriorating security landscape across the province. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, Balochistan recorded 774 total fatalities in 2024, representing a 64 percent increase from the previous year’s 471 deaths. The province experienced 315 security force casualties in 2024, marking the highest such toll since data collection began. Early 2025 figures suggest the violence may exceed these already alarming levels, with 255 security personnel killed in the first 70 days of the year.

The insurgency’s operational sophistication has grown substantially under the coordination of the Baloch Raaji Aajohi Sangar (BRAS) coalition, which unifies major militant factions including the BLA, Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), and Baloch Republican Army. This alliance has enabled large scale coordinated attacks on symbolic dates, including Pakistan’s Independence Day and the anniversary of Balochistan’s accession to Pakistan. Between 2018 and 2024, BRAS claimed 204 joint attacks, demonstrating enhanced organizational capacity.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has emerged as a particular flashpoint, with militant groups viewing the multi-billion dollar infrastructure project as exploitative of local resources without benefiting indigenous populations. Chinese nationals and CPEC related infrastructure have faced repeated attacks, prompting Beijing to express frustration with Pakistan’s security arrangements and temporarily halt certain projects. The targeting of Chinese interests reflects broader Baloch grievances over resource extraction and demographic changes in the province.

Economic marginalization remains a central driver of the conflict. Despite Balochistan’s abundant natural resources including natural gas, coal, copper, gold and other minerals, approximately 70 percent of the population remains classified as multidimensionally poor. The province produces significant portions of Pakistan’s energy needs through major gas fields at Sui, Loti and Pir Koh, yet residents report minimal benefit from this wealth. Recent discoveries of antimony reserves and continued development of the Reko Diq copper gold project have intensified debates over equitable resource distribution.

Demographic tensions compound security challenges as ethnic Baloch reportedly constitute a declining percentage of the province’s population. Census data indicates Baloch speakers decreased from 61 percent to 55.6 percent between 1998 and 2017, raising concerns among Baloch communities about becoming a minority in their ancestral homeland. The presence of Afghan refugees and internal migration from other provinces contributes to these demographic shifts.

Human rights organizations have documented extensive violations by both state forces and militant groups. The United Nations Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances has highlighted Pakistan’s practice of enforced disappearances in Balochistan as a serious concern. The Pakistani government’s counterterrorism operations have been criticized for excessive force, while separatist militants face accusations of targeting schools, teachers and non Baloch civilians.

Recent militant activities demonstrate the insurgency’s sustained capacity for violence. In January 2025, BLA militants seized control of Zehri town and conducted a suicide bombing in Turbat that killed 12 people including 11 Frontier Corps personnel. Throughout the year, attacks have targeted military convoys, checkpoints and infrastructure with improvised explosive devices and coordinated assaults. The August 2025 designation of the BLA as a foreign terrorist organization by the United States reflects international recognition of the group’s threat level.

Pakistan’s security response has relied heavily on intelligence based operations targeting militant hideouts rather than large scale military campaigns. However, the persistence and escalation of attacks suggest current counterinsurgency strategies have proven insufficient to address the underlying political and economic grievances fueling the conflict.

The provincial government and federal authorities continue to attribute insurgent activities to foreign sponsorship, particularly from India and Afghanistan, though concrete evidence supporting these allegations remains limited. These accusations occur amid broader regional tensions and Pakistan’s strained relationships with neighboring countries.

The deteriorating security environment poses significant challenges for development projects, governance and civilian life in Balochistan. Without comprehensive political dialogue addressing Baloch grievances over resource distribution, political representation and human rights, the insurgency appears likely to persist and potentially intensify further, threatening both provincial stability and Pakistan’s broader security interests.