Pakistan’s New Submarine Fleet Rewrites Indian Ocean Power Balance

The Pakistan Navy expects its first Chinese-designed submarine to enter active service in 2026, a development that signals a profound shift in the strategic military balance of the Indian Ocean and cements Beijing’s role as the indispensable security partner of Islamabad. This milestone is part of a colossal $5 billion defense deal struck in 2015 for the acquisition of eight advanced diesel-electric attack submarines, a contract that stands as one of China’s largest-ever arms export agreements. The Hangor-class submarines, an export variant of China’s Type 039A/041 Yuan-class, are expected to significantly boost Pakistan’s underwater deterrence, challenging the naval superiority long held by its neighbour, India.

Pakistan’s Navy Chief, Admiral Naveed Ashraf, recently told Chinese news agency Global Times that the plan for the delivery of the eight submarines by 2028 is “progressing smoothly,” adding that the new vessels will enhance the Navy’s capability to patrol the North Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. The terms of the 2015 agreement stipulate a critical technological component: the initial four vessels are being built in China, with three already launched along the Yangtze River, while the remaining four are to be constructed and assembled at the Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KS&EW) in Pakistan under a substantial Transfer of Technology (ToT) program. This mixed build strategy is not merely a purchase; it is a long-term strategic investment aimed at transforming Pakistan into a submarine-building nation, according to statements from the government of Pakistan’s Ministry of Defence (MoD). Admiral Ashraf further praised Chinese platforms as “reliable, technologically advanced and well-suited” to Pakistan’s operational requirements.

Beyond the immediate military capability, the deal is framed by analysts as a key component of China’s broader geopolitical strategy. The new submarine fleet will strengthen Pakistan’s ability to protect the sea lines of communication (SLOCs) that run toward the deep-water port of Gwadar, the critical terminus of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). As CPEC seeks to provide Beijing with direct access to the Arabian Sea, bypassing the strategic choke point of the Straits of Malacca, the Hangor class submarines are viewed as naval assets securing China’s commercial and energy interests. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a prominent conflict and arms transfer watchdog, provides quantifiable context, reporting that Pakistan purchased over 60% of China’s total weapons exports between 2020 and 2024, confirming Islamabad’s deep reliance on Beijing for modernising its armed forces.

However, the acquisition has also raised questions about strategic autonomy. A September report by the non-governmental organization RNA Media, which monitors strategic and defense affairs, suggests that the Hangor-class fleet, while powerful, comes with a “hidden cost” of deep financial and logistical dependency on Beijing. The report highlights that nearly 80% of the $5 billion cost is covered by Chinese credit, effectively binding the maintenance, spares, and critical software updates for the highly sophisticated, Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) equipped submarines to China’s goodwill and strategic agenda. This dynamic, the NGO argues, could compromise Pakistan’s operational freedom, making the fleet as much a tool of Beijing’s long-term leverage as it is a naval asset for Islamabad. The vessels, designed for extended, quiet patrols, are reportedly capable of launching anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles, potentially including the country’s indigenously developed Babur-3 Submarine-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM), adding a crucial layer to Pakistan’s evolving sea-based nuclear deterrence capability. The entry of the Hangor fleet into the Indian Ocean’s contested waters from 2026 is, therefore, more than a defense upgrade; it is a decisive re-calibration of regional power, sponsored and sustained by Beijing.